Grain stocks to use ratio
Corn Price = a + b (1/Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio) + c DW + d DM1 +e DM2 + f DS, where DW is a dummy variable that takes on a value of 1 during weak demand years after 2005-06 and 0 otherwise, DM1 is a dummy variable that takes on a value of 1 during moderate demand 1 years after 2005-06 and 0 otherwise, FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2020 seasons has been raised this month by 2.4 million tonnes to nearly 866 million tonnes, keeping the global cereals stocks-to-use ratio at a comfortable level of 30.9 percent. At 277 million tonnes, 2019/20 global wheat inventories are raised by 2.6 million tonnes (1.0 percent) this month, reflecting an upward revision for the Islamic Republic of Iran corresponding to production estimate adjustments for recent years. Compared to Corn Price = a + b (1/Stocks-Use Ratio). This specification is simple and imposes a curvilinear relationship between price and the stocks-to-use ratio. That is, the curve becomes steeper and steeper as the stocks-to-use ratio declines, and vice versa. U.S. Supply and Demand (WASDE) Spreadsheets The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) are released on about the 10th of each month by USDA. These spreadsheets provides historical data for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, and soybeans, from 1973 to present. Use, Total (Million Bushels) Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) Stocks-to-Use Ratio; 1972-73: 5991: 709: 11.83%: 1973-74: 5874: 483: 8.22%: 1974-75: 4790: 359: 7.49% Stock-to-use ratios show the balance between supply and demand for a given commodity; Higher stock-to-use ratios mean more supply is available while lower ratios suggest a tighter supply situation; Stock-to-use ratios have significant market impact and should be considered when creating marketing plans
The stocks-to-use ratio (S/U) is a convenient measure of supply and demand interrelationships of commodities. This ratio indicates the level of carryover stock for
On a world basis a stocks/use ratio for wheat under 20% has typically led to strong price advances. For corn, the comparable number appears to be under 12%. For soybeans, the critical level is below 10%. The 2018/19 world corn stock to use ratio is currently pegged at 14.3%, which is just above the recent low of 14.2% seen in the 2010/11 season and the only time it was lower was in the 1972-74 period of tight global grain stocks and record prices prevailing at that time. Stocks/Use Ratio 31.3% 28.0% 26.1% 26.2%. USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW March 10, 2020 ***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be For wheat, the latest WASDE report featured higher output, lower trade and a slightly reduced level of stocks but at 36.2% the 2017/18 stock to use ratio ties 1998/99 for the highest world wheat Stock-to-use ratios show the balance between supply and demand for a given commodity Higher stock-to-use ratios mean more supply is available while lower ratios suggest a tighter supply situation Stock-to-use ratios have significant market impact and should be considered when creating marketing plans
19 Feb 2020 With offsetting changes in use, projected ending stocks remain at 1,892 million bushels, the lowest since 2015/16. The stocks-to-use ratio is
6 Dec 2019 Wheat's global stocks-to-use ratio is at 38.2%, another record level. The good news in the global data, Anderson says. The Black Sea region 29 Dec 2019 corn ending stocks to 1.745 billion bushels (stocks-to-use ratio of 12.5%). That said, 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks have already been Global Grain Stocks Drop Dangerously Low as 2012 Consumption Exceeded Such a low corn-stocks-to-use ratio—unseen before by farmers working the land 19 Feb 2020 With offsetting changes in use, projected ending stocks remain at 1,892 million bushels, the lowest since 2015/16. The stocks-to-use ratio is Largest Markets for U.S. All Wheat Exports: Last Five Marketing Year. Average http://www.farmdoc. U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price . 12 Dec 2016 In comparison, the world stocks-to-use ratio of 16 percent for barley and 34 percent for wheat. “The U.S. is carrying the lion's share of stocks,”
The 2018/19 world corn stock to use ratio is currently pegged at 14.3%, which is just above the recent low of 14.2% seen in the 2010/11 season and the only time it was lower was in the 1972-74 period of tight global grain stocks and record prices prevailing at that time.
1 Sep 2016 Wheat traded well under $4 for the first time in 10 years. No one knows when the low will happen in corn. It could be like the summer run-up 18 Nov 2019 Figure 1 shows the U.S. corn ending stocks to use ratio since 2000. Additionally, the graph includes the projection from the USDA's May keeping the global cereals stocks-to-use ratio at a comfortable level of 30.9 percent. At 277 million tonnes, 2019/20 global wheat inventories are raised by 2.6 22 Oct 2018 The global stocks-to-use ratio for wheat is still quite high at 35%. NOTE: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and 11 Jun 2019 COARSE GRAINS: This month's 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.40 percent, up marginally over last 25 May 2016 Since grain and oilseed markets are obviously global in nature, it follows that world stocks-to-use ratios may do a better job of predicting prices
Stock-to-use ratios show the balance between supply and demand for a given commodity; Higher stock-to-use ratios mean more supply is available while lower ratios suggest a tighter supply situation; Stock-to-use ratios have significant market impact and should be considered when creating marketing plans
11 Jun 2019 COARSE GRAINS: This month's 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.40 percent, up marginally over last 25 May 2016 Since grain and oilseed markets are obviously global in nature, it follows that world stocks-to-use ratios may do a better job of predicting prices
We identify critical stocks-to-use ratios (SURs) for major grains and for an index of total calories from these grains. The latter appears to be a promising indicator of vulnerability to large price spikes when the current price shows no cause for concern. More generally, our results suggest Stocks-to-Use Ratios and Grain Price Volatility (Steven L. El111ore, 5.151294-6175) (Darnell B. SmitlJ, 515/294-1 184) Speculation in the agricullural community early this year focused not only on a new farm bill but also on the abnormal world grain markeL condiLions. Much of the market speculation cemered on the fact that we Corn Stocks to Use Ratio October 2017, Volume 9 In the Sept. 30, 2017, Grain Stocks report, the USDA National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) indicted final 2016-‘17 marketing year corn ending stocks were 2.295 billion bushels. This was smaller than the average trade estimates, but also the largest U.S. corn surplus since the stocks-to-use ratio, at 45.4 percent, is down from the projected 2017/18 ratio of 48.8 percent, but remains above the 5-year average of 42.7. The 2018/19 season-average farm price is projected at $4.70 per bushel and is up ten cents from the midpoint of the forecast 2017/18 price. Large carryin stocks